Friday, March 16, 2012

Stollery Executive Development Centre

5-40 Alberta School of Business

Business Building

University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta

8:15 – 8:45 AM Registration and Morning Coffee

*** There are NO conference fee’s to attend the 22nd Annual Warren E. Kalbach Population conference; however, the organizers encourage you to purchase a Society of Edmonton Demographers (SED) membership ($10.00 for regular and $5.00 for student), or provide a donation to SED. ***

8:45 - 9:00 AM ~ Welcoming Greetings ~
Alison Yacyshyn (Society of Edmonton Demographers President)

Helen Boritch (Acting Chair, Dept. of Sociology, University of Alberta)
Peter Puplampu (Chair, Dept. of Sociology, Grant MacEwan University)
Madeline Kalbach (Professor Emeritus, University of Calgary)

9:00 - 9:20 AM Presentation 1

Presenter: Shelley Boulianne (Dept. of Sociology, Grant MacEwan University)
Title: Social or Economic Exchange Theory: Examining the Gender Effects of Different Incentive

         Amounts in a Web Survey
Abstract: Researchers are struggling to determine effective methods to improve response rates to web surveys. This study presents the results of an experiment that varied the disbursement of an incentive in a web survey (n=350). Participants were randomly assigned to receive either a $5 pre-paid incentive or a $10 pre-paid incentive. In line with the social exchange theory of survey participation, I find that there are no significant differences in response rate between the two conditions. However, the incentive amount interacted with sex in producing different response rates for males and females. Females were more likely to respond to the survey when provided with a $5 incentive compared to a $10 incentive. The findings are discussed in terms of support for the economic exchange theory, social exchange theory, and leverage-saliency theories of survey participation. 

9:20 - 9:40 AM Presentation 2

Presenter: Susan McDaniel (Prentice Institute for Global Population & Economy, & Dept. of Sociology, University of Lethbridge)

Title: Reconstructing Generational Relations: Canada and Japan, 1960-2008

Abstract: Generational relations are being reconstructed with changes in population, life course, family and gender, labour markets, and ideation/culture. Shifting social policies, partly in response to these changes, also reshape generational relations and the ways in which we do generation, both in families and in the public sphere.  In turn, policies are challenged and reshaped circularly.  In this macro-level comparative examination of generational relations over almost a half a century in Canada and Japan, relying on the Comparative Family Policy database and Japan’s 5 year Project on Intergenerational Equity, as well as other data sources, we  detect the contours of generational reconstruction, of shifting life course expectations, entitlements and responsibilities between older and younger generations. Reconstructing generational relations and shifting life course transitions are found to be key to the reworking of social security policies. The protection pentagon of states, markets, communities, families and individuals is not one challenge but several, with each layered on others preceding it. In historical, comparative and life course perspective, patterns emerge that are not otherwise apparent.  In terms of population research priorities, this analysis makes the case for more comparative, more historical and more life course research in population studies.

9:40 - 10:00 AM Presentation 3

Presenter: Frank Trovato (Dept. of Sociology, University of Alberta) and Md. Kamrul Islam (Ph.D. Graduate Student, Dept. of Sociology, University of Alberta)
Title: Social Demographic Analysis of Post-War Fertility in Alberta, 1947-2008

Abstract: Demographic transition theory predicts that social demographic differences in fertility should converge once a country has reached the post-transitional stage whose principal features are low fertility, low mortality, and low rates of natural increase. As is true with virtually all post-transitional societies, Canada’s total fertility rate (TFR) has been below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman since the early 1970s. However, fertility rates across the Canadian regions are far from uniform, thereby contradicting the premise of convergence inherent in transition theory. A varied pattern of regional fertility exists within this country, with some areas experiencing significantly higher rates than others. Among the provinces, the lowest TFRs are in British Columbia and the Atlantic provinces of Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick. The highest rates are in the Prairie Provinces of Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Alberta, where TFRs are not very far from the replacement level of 2.1. In central Canada, the provinces of Ontario and Quebec have fertility rates that fluctuate close to that of the national average, which in 2009 stood at 1.68 children per woman.

It is not clear what underlies these geographic variations in fertility in Canada, as there has been surprisingly little systematic analysis on this phenomenon in recent years.¹ As part of a larger project, the present analysis looks at the post-war experience of Alberta, one of the provinces which have shown an increasing pattern of fertility in recent years. Our main objective is to examine the influences on fertility of temporal changes in male income, female labour force participation, and female wages over the post-War years of 1947 to 2008. We apply an econometric model proposed by Butz and Ward (1979)² to study the effects of these economic variables on fertility.

The data for this investigation is comprised of a large tabulation of births cross-classified by birth order, age of mother, region, and year compiled with information appearing in published volumes by Statistics Canada, and other data obtained by special request to Statistics Canada. The female population denominators for the computation of age-parity-specific birth rates were taken from the CANSIM data base of Statistics Canada.

[1] This study excludes the territories of Yukon, Northwest Territories, and Nunavut.

2 Butz, William and Michael Ward. 1979. “Will US fertility remain low? A new economic interpretation.” Population and Development Review 5 (4): 663-688.

10:00 - 10:15 AM Morning BREAK

10:15 - 10:35 AM Presentation 4

Presenter: Andy Harrell (Professor Emeritus, University of Alberta)
Title: Do Canadians Still Immigrate to the U.S. under NAFTA?  The Impact of High Unemployment and

         a Weaker U.S. Dollar

Abstract: In our 2009 study published in the Canadian Studies in Population we observed that under NAFTA for the years 1989-2006 the number of visas issued to Canadians by the INS/USCIS and the U.S. Department of State was driven by economic factors.  In particular, immigration in L (intra-company transfers) and TN classifications was a function of relative unemployment rates in the U.S. and Canada and currency exchange rates.  Higher migration occurred when Canadian unemployment was relatively higher than U.S. unemployment and when the Canadian dollar was of less value than its U.S. counterpart.  Time series analyses demonstrated that there was a 1-2 year lag effect of unemployment and currency exchange rates on immigration.  Subsequent to the publication of our study, the U.S. has entered a period of prolonged recession, featuring higher unemployment, relative to Canada, and currency trading either at par with the Canadian dollar or lower.  Treating this as a “natural” experiment, we have analyzed recent USCIS statistics for non-immigrant visa immigration to the U.S. for the years 2006-2010 to see if earlier trends were maintained.  Such seems the case for the L visa and E-1/E-2 (Treaty Trader/Investor) visas.  However, a different picture may be emerging for the TN visa, particularly in view of changes in USCIS data collection practices and the extension of the TN from a one year to three year term.  To supplement USCIS data, preliminary findings from an online survey of Canadians’ intentions to migrate are presented.

10:35 - 10:50 Presentation 5

Presenters: Alison Yacyshyn (University of Alberta) and Kwame Boadu (Government of Alberta)
Title: Perceptions of Belonging to an Age Cohort and Consequential Cohort Based Decision-Making
Abstract: Baby boomers, Generation X, Gen X, Baby Bust, and Generation Y, GenY, Millennials, are commonly used terms to describe individuals belonging to a particular age cohorts. Using data collected in the 2010 Alberta Survey, 1200 respondents, in both urban and rural areas in Alberta, Canada, were asked their perceptions of select marketing and political campaign-related issues, according to the cohort they belong. The majority of individuals in this telephone survey feel that the age group they belong is not ignored in marketing campaigns, although these same respondents perceive it is the Baby Boomers and Generation Y cohorts who receive the most media attention in contemporary society. Not surprisingly, the majority of individuals agree that it is appropriate for governments to shape policy based on the size of age groups in the population. Our analysis suggests that addressing demographic characteristics and cohort based analysis is essential in both contemporary marketing and governmental policy strategies.

10:50 – 11:00 BREAK

11:00 - 12:00 Distinguished Demographer’s Keynote Address:  

Doug Norris (Senior Vice‐President and Chief Demographer, Environics Analytics)
Title: Demographic Research Priorities: A view from the non-academic world

Abstract: Today, demographic trends such as the ageing of Canada’s population and Canada’s increased cultural diversity have important implications for public policy issues.  Although there has been a considerable amount of academic demographic research, much less attention has been given to what might be termed “applied” demographic research. However, increasingly, businesses, not-for-profit organizations and governments at all levels are interested in how changing demographics might impact business plans and in particular the delivery of services and programs.

This presentation will first discuss the issues and challenges facing applied demographers and how they differ from more traditional academic research. Drawing on experience in both the public and private sectors, a range of priority research areas will be identified and discussed. Finally there will be a discussion of the opportunities and challenges facing demographers, if the research agenda is broadened to include more applied demographic issues.

12:00 – 12:15 PM BREAK

12:30 - 1:30 Lunch & Society of Edmonton Demographers Annual General Meeting
(NB: non-members are allowed to sit in the meeting, but only paid members can vote)

1:30 – 1:40 PM BREAK

1:40 - 2:00 PM Presentation 6

Presenter:  David Parry (Esri Canada)

Title: Visualization of demographic data within ArcGIS online
Abstract: Using Business Analyst Canadian Edition, a packaging of demographic and business data compiled with help of Environics Analytics, Esri Canada has leveraged the Esri desktop geographic information systems software to enable spatial analysis, and with ArcGIS.com to share results and collaborate with peers. Spatial Analysis performed with these compiled data sets enables evaluation of changes in population, migration & behavioural research studies. From a commercial and government perspective, this solution enables customer target marketing, site selection, program effectiveness monitoring, policy analysis, and a myriad of other insights for better decision making. Several examples will be illustrated using both desktop and web based software available though Esri Canada’s educational and commercial programmes.

2:00 - 2:20 PM Presentation 7

Presenter: Tali Neta (Postdoctoral Fellow, Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Alberta)

Title: Spatial Analysis of NPRI Carcinogen Air Emissions in Alberta, Canada

Abstract: Cancer represents a costly multi-factor/step disease where environmental factors are major contributors to aetiology. The present research is motivated particularly by concerns of daily exposures to carcinogens released to air from industrial activities. The impact of environmental pollution on health requires assessment of emissions. The Canadian National Pollutant Release Inventory (NPRI) is a publically accessible government funded inventory that addresses pollution releases through mandatory reporting. We have generated Canada wide NPRI maps and identified potential areas of interest, where future evaluation of cancer occurrence will consider factors such as population density, ethnicity, family income, wind direction and land use; indicating that comprehensive location driven analysis is needed. The assessment of various variables will be done using detailed geospatial and geostatistical analyses in a GIS environment. Ultimately, these analyses may illuminate the processes whereby industrial activities may influence cancer.

2:20 - 2:40 PM Presentation 8

Presenter:  Michael Gillespie (University of Alberta)

Title: The relation between Emotion Arousal and Job Stress in a Sample of Canadian Workers: An

         Updated Analysis
Abstract: This paper presents the results of an updated analysis of data from Cycle 6 (1991) of the Canadian General Social Survey (CGSS).  A key finding of an analysis of a subsample of workers that I did in the 1990’s is a homeostatic loop between emotional arousal and the worker’s attempt to cope with a negative job situation.  The nature of this loop is that arousal increases attempts to improve the job situation, while attempts to cope reduce arousal.  If my interpretation of this result is correct, it possibly represents the only empirical confirmation of the idea that coping reduces stress.  My interpretation rests on three assumptions:  First, the unrotated two-dimensional solution that typically results from the factor analysis of the ten-item Bradburn Affect-Balance scale is preferable to the solution produced by rotating the two dimensions to simple structure, the dominant practice in the psychology of emotion.  Second, the second component of the unrotated solution (that essentially corresponds to the sum of the ten “affects”) is the psychological manifestation of stress defined by Selye as “the non-specific response to change.”  Third, while a consequence of stressful events, emotional arousal also is a cause of action or behavior.   Apart from the validity of these assumptions, a methodological problem with my analysis also calls into question the very existence of this result.  The problem arises because the coping question was asked only of the approximately 40% of the sample who reported job worries.  Consequently, I adopted the expedient of assigning a code of zero to both those respondents and those who actually reported not attempting to improve their job situation.  My describes the attempts to use recent developments in the analysis of missing data in newer versions of structural equation modeling software to undertake a more methodologically sound analysis.  The key question of this updated analysis is whether my result of a homeostatic loop stands up or whether my result was an artifact of my treatment of respondents who were filtered out of the coping question. 

2:40 - 3:00 PM Afternoon Break and Sponsor Spotlight

3:00- 3:20 PM Presentation 9

Presenter: Kamrul Islam (Ph. D. Graduate student, Dept. of Sociology, University of Alberta)

Title: Fertility of the second generation immigrant descendants in Canada: Convergence or

         Divergence?

Abstract: In order to explore the long-term effect of migration on fertility, we need to examine fertility of at least two generations to examine the extent to which reproductive norms and values of first generation immigrants are transferred to the second generation immigrant descendants. In this study, I will examine the extent to which cumulative fertility (i.e., number of children ever born) and transition to parity specific fertility (i.e., time to first birth from marriage, time to second birth from the first, and time to third birth from the second) differ between (i) second generation immigrant descendants and the Canadian born and (ii) second generation immigrant descendants and first generation immigrants. I will use data from the 2010 Alberta Fertility Survey (a randomly selected sample of 1105 women aged 18-49) and the 2006 Census of Canada. Using data from the Canadian census in addition to the 2010 Alberta fertility Survey will enhance the reliability of the research through incorporating a large sample in the analysis. I will apply multivariate Cox proportional hazard models to analyse parity-specific fertility, and OLS regression to analyze the cumulative fertility. I expect to find that second generation would have lower fertility than the first generation immigrants and the Canadian born women.

3:20- 3:40 PM Presentation 10

Presenter: Sinisa Vukicevic (Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Alberta)

Title: Census based commuting pattern analysis, case study County Cork, Republic of Ireland
Abstract: This paper will represent how to use Census based travel to work data in the strategic planning, from the national to the local level. The analysis was based on POWCAR data set (Place of Work Census of Anonymised Records) as a part of the Census 2006 in Ireland. The POWCAR data has been recognised as a beneficial data source, but proper using of POWCAR requires considerably GIS knowledge. Also, the POWCAR data set was found as applicable at many research areas, but in this paper we will be focused on commuting pattern analysis from the Cork County strategic planning area level to the City neighbourhood level.

The POWCAR data, particularly jobs, are coded by DED’s (Census tracts) and with the set of associate attributes which allowed performing of varied GIS spatial analysis like producing “coming in” and “going out” graph (origin and destination analysis) and defining hinterlands of towns and regions. On the basis of origin-destination analysis we were able to define dependency of Cork metropolitan main towns to Cork City, the amount of commuting between strategic planning areas and amount of commuting to main employment zones. Moreover, we were able to define labour force exchange between Cork City and Cork metropolitan main towns together with the defying main town’s functional areas (daily migration systems).

Furthermore, on the basis of attributes associated to each particular job (represented by points - with x and y coordinates), we were able to explore which means of travel commuters use, what distance they are going to travel (journey by “km”), time of departure, journey by minutes, the nature of their business (industry group), they occupation and employment status, level of education they completed, etc.

The comparative analysis of commuting patterns and public transportation system allowed us to understand where there is likely to be more pressure on the provision of infrastructure and where there is a need for additional transportation links (public transport) on the busiest routes.

Thus, POWCAR data GIS analysis gave us the possibility to understand commuting patterns which output planners used in developing planning policies on different planning levels. 

3:40 - 4:00 PM Presentation 11

Presenters: Harvey Krahn (Dept. of Sociology, U of A) and Nancy Galambos (Dept. of Psychology, U of A)

Title: Social Psychological and Labour Market Explanations of the “Scarring” Effects of Youth

         Unemployment
Abstract: High levels of youth unemployment and underemployment (e.g., self-reported over-qualification, involuntary part-time work) have characterized North American labour markets for extended periods since the early 1980s. But little is known about how such difficult labour market entry experiences affect the careers of young adults. This paper analyzes data from an Edmonton-based 14-year longitudinal study that first surveyed 18 year-olds in 1985 when they were completing high school and then again in 1986, 1987, 1989, and 1992 as they moved through the period Jeffrey Arnett describes as “emerging adulthood” (ages 18 to 25), and once more in 1999 when they were young adults (age 32). Unemployment during emerging adulthood had significant negative effects on both income and the quality of employment (e.g., occupational status, benefits, job security) at age 32, but similar effects were not observed for underemployment. The “scarring” effect of unemployment was not mediated by reduced self-esteem and occupational aspirations among the unemployed and under-employed, suggesting that labour market selection rather than social psychological processes may be responsible.

4:00 - 4:20 PM Presentation 12

Presenters: Herbert C. Northcott (Dept. of Sociology, University of Alberta) and Michael D. Harvey (Edmonton, Alberta)

Title: Public Perceptions of Key Performance Indicators of Health Care in Alberta, Canada
Abstract: Objective. To examine the relationship between public perceptions of key performance indicators assessing various aspects of the health care system. Design. Cross-sequential survey research. Annual telephone surveys of random samples of adult Albertans selected by random digit dialing and stratified according to age, sex, and region (n=4000 for each survey year). The survey questionnaires included single-item measures of key performance indicators to assess public perceptions of availability, accessibility, quality, outcome, and satisfaction with health care. Cronbach’s alpha and factor analysis were used to assess the relationship between key performance indicators focusing on the health care system overall and key performance indicators focusing on a recent interaction with the health care system. Setting. The province of Alberta, Canada during the years 1996-2004.Participants. 4000 adults randomly selected each survey year. Main Outcome Measures. Survey questions measuring public perceptions of health care  availability, accessibility, quality, outcome, and satisfaction with health care. Results. Factor analysis identified two principal components with key performance indicators focusing on the health system overall loading most strongly on the first component and key performance indicators focusing on the most recent health care encounter loading most strongly on the second component. Assessments of the quality of care most recently received, accessibility of that care, and perceived outcome of care tended to be higher than the more general assessments of overall health system quality and accessibility. Conclusions. Assessments of specific health care encounters and more general assessments of the overall health care system, while related, nevertheless comprise separate dimensions for health care evaluation.

4:20 - 4:40 PM ~ Book Launch ~ Juhee Suwal (Alberta Health Services)

Title: Suwal, Juhee Vajracharya. 2012. Demographic and Epidemiological Transitions in Nepal: Developmental Implications. New Delhi: ADROIT Publishers.

4:40 – 4:50 PM Closing Remarks
Alison Yacyshyn (Society of Edmonton Demographers President & University of Alberta)
Wayne McVey (Society of Edmonton Demographers Honorary Advisor & University of Alberta)

4:50 – 5:50 PM Poster Session and Treats

6:00 PM Conference Dinner: Faculty Club, University of Alberta

Address: 11435 Saskatchewan Dr, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 2G9

RSVP is required through the conference (SED) website RSVP

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